# Amara's Law It takes time for technology to change the world, but it doesn't mean that it is not going to change it in big ways. As new technology emerges, we fail to see the long term impact, but also tend to overestimate the short-term impact. Attributed to [[Roy Amara]], who stated that [[We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run]]. It's also related to [[Exponential growth]], where effects compound, leading to an explosion at some point. ## References - Susan Ratcliffe, ed. (2016). ["Roy Amara 1925–2007, American futurologist"](http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro-ed4-00018679). _Oxford Essential Quotations_. Vol. 1 (4th ed.). Oxford University Press. [doi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doi_(identifier) "Doi (identifier)"):[10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Facref%2F9780191826719.001.0001) ## Related - [[Gates' Law]] - [[Exponential growth]]