# Cognitive biases Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from rationality in judgment and [[Decision Making]]. First catalogued by [[Daniel Kahneman]] and [[Amos Tversky]] in the 1970s, these biases arise from the brain's use of mental shortcuts ([[Heuristics]]) that are efficient but can lead to predictable errors. Unlike random errors, cognitive biases are consistent and reproducible—people make the same mistakes in similar situations. Biases evolved as adaptive mechanisms for quick decision-making in ancestral environments but can misfire in modern contexts. They affect perception, memory, attention, and reasoning. Understanding biases is crucial for [[Behavioral Economics]], UX design, critical thinking, and personal decision-making. While biases can't be eliminated entirely, awareness and structured processes (checklists, devil's advocates, decision frameworks) can mitigate their effects. ## Categories of Cognitive Biases ``` ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ COGNITIVE BIASES │ ├───────────────────┬─────────────────┬───────────────────────┤ │ DECISION-MAKING │ SOCIAL │ MEMORY │ ├───────────────────┼─────────────────┼───────────────────────┤ │ Confirmation │ In-group bias │ Hindsight bias │ │ Anchoring │ Halo effect │ Rosy retrospection │ │ Availability │ Attribution │ Source confusion │ │ Sunk cost │ Just-world │ False memory │ │ Framing │ Authority │ Peak-end rule │ ├───────────────────┴─────────────────┴───────────────────────┤ │ PROBABILITY │ SELF │ BELIEF │ ├───────────────────┼─────────────────┼───────────────────────┤ │ Gambler's fallacy │ Overconfidence │ Belief perseverance │ │ Base rate neglect │ Self-serving │ Backfire effect │ │ Conjunction │ Dunning-Kruger │ Confirmation │ │ Hot-hand fallacy │ Spotlight │ Semmelweis reflex │ └───────────────────┴─────────────────┴───────────────────────┘ ``` ## Common Biases | Bias | Description | Example | |------|-------------|---------| | **Confirmation** | Seek info that confirms beliefs | Reading only agreeing news | | **Anchoring** | Over-rely on first information | Price negotiations | | **Availability** | Overweight recent/vivid events | Fear of flying after crash news | | **Sunk cost** | Continue due to past investment | Finishing a bad movie | | **Loss aversion** | Losses feel worse than gains | Holding losing stocks | | **Hindsight** | "I knew it all along" | Post-event predictions | | **Overconfidence** | Overestimate own abilities | Planning fallacy | | **Dunning-Kruger** | Unskilled unaware of incompetence | Beginners overestimate skill | | **Halo effect** | One trait influences overall impression | Attractive = competent | | **Bandwagon** | Follow what others do | Social media trends | | **Status quo** | Prefer current state | Not switching providers | | **Framing** | Influenced by presentation | "90% fat-free" vs "10% fat" | ## Biases by Domain | Domain | Relevant Biases | |--------|-----------------| | **Investing** | Loss aversion, overconfidence, herd mentality | | **Hiring** | Halo effect, affinity bias, confirmation | | **Medical** | Availability, anchoring, diagnosis momentum | | **Legal** | Hindsight, confirmation, anchoring | | **UX Design** | Status quo, default bias, choice overload | | **Relationships** | Attribution, spotlight, self-serving | ## Debiasing Strategies | Strategy | How It Helps | |----------|--------------| | **Awareness** | Recognize biases in self and others | | **Slow down** | Engage System 2 deliberate thinking | | **Seek disconfirming evidence** | Counter confirmation bias | | **Consider alternatives** | Avoid tunnel vision | | **Use checklists** | Reduce cognitive load | | **Devil's advocate** | Challenge assumptions | | **Pre-mortem** | Imagine failure, work backward | | **Blind evaluation** | Remove irrelevant information | ## Key Figures | Person | Contribution | |--------|--------------| | [[Daniel Kahneman]] | Heuristics and biases program | | [[Amos Tversky]] | Systematic study of biases | | [[Herbert Simon]] | Bounded rationality | | [[Richard Thaler]] | Applications to economics | ## References - Kahneman, D. (2011). *Thinking, Fast and Slow* - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases ## Related - [[Heuristics]] - [[Decision Making]] - [[Behavioral Economics]] - [[Cognitive Psychology]] - [[Daniel Kahneman]] - [[Amos Tversky]] - [[Prospect Theory]] - [[Critical Thinking]]