# The Wisdom of Crowds *The Wisdom of Crowds* (2004) by James Surowiecki argues that under the right conditions, groups make better decisions than individuals—even experts. The classic example: the average of crowd guesses at a county fair about an ox's weight was more accurate than any individual guess, including butchers. Four conditions for crowd wisdom: diversity (different perspectives), independence (no influence from others), decentralization (local knowledge), and aggregation (mechanism to combine judgments). When these fail—through [[Conformity Bias]], cascades, or [[Groupthink]]—crowds become mobs. The book influenced thinking about markets, prediction, and [[Crowdsourcing]]. ## Conditions for Wisdom | Condition | Why It Matters | |-----------|----------------| | Diversity | Different information sources | | Independence | No herding or copying | | Decentralization | Local/specialized knowledge | | Aggregation | Way to combine judgments | ## References - Surowiecki, James. *The Wisdom of Crowds* (2004) ## Related - [[Crowdsourcing]] - [[Groupthink]] - [[Conformity Bias]] - [[Decision Making]]